Фредди...Ну чего ты на Котофея напал...Он умница...Давайте лучше дружить?

Я не умница. Я нидастоен вниманийя. При равенстве целей, такой аргумент, ИМХО, весомее.

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Этот же, но другой. (с)

Эффект Барнума (Форера)


The Forer effect refers to the tendency of people to rate sets of statements as highly accurate for them personally even though the statements could apply to many people.

Psychologist Bertram R. Forer (1914-2000) found that people tend to accept vague and general personality descriptions as uniquely applicable to themselves without realizing that the same description could be applied to just about anyone. Consider the following as if it were given to you as an evaluation of your personality.

You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You also pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be rather unrealistic.

Forer gave a personality test to his students, ignored their answers, and gave each student the above evaluation. He asked them to evaluate the evaluation from 0 to 5, with "5" meaning the recipient felt the evaluation was an "excellent" assessment and "4" meaning the assessment was "good." The class average evaluation was 4.26. That was in 1948. The test has been repeated hundreds of time with psychology students and the average is still around 4.2 out of 5, or 84% accurate.

In short, Forer convinced people he could successfully read their character. His accuracy amazed his subjects, though his personality analysis was taken from a newsstand astrology column and was presented to people without regard to their sun sign. The Forer effect seems to explain, in part at least, why so many people think that pseudosciences "work". Astrology, astrotherapy, biorhythms, cartomancy, chiromancy, the enneagram, fortune telling, graphology, rumpology, etc., seem to work because they seem to provide accurate personality analyses. Scientific studies of these pseudosciences demonstrate that they are not valid personality assessment tools, yet each has many satisfied customers who are convinced they are accurate.

The most common explanations given to account for the Forer effect are in terms of hope, wishful thinking, vanity and the tendency to try to make sense out of experience, though Forer's own explanation was in terms of human gullibility. People tend to accept claims about themselves in proportion to their desire that the claims be true rather than in proportion to the empirical accuracy of the claims as measured by some non-subjective standard. We tend to accept questionable, even false statements about ourselves, if we deem them positive or flattering enough. We will often give very liberal interpretations to vague or inconsistent claims about ourselves in order to make sense out of the claims. Subjects who seek counseling from psychics, mediums, fortune tellers, mind readers, graphologists, etc., will often ignore false or questionable claims and, in many cases, by their own words or actions, will provide most of the information they erroneously attribute to a pseudoscientific counselor. Many such subjects often feel their counselors have provided them with profound and personal information. Such subjective validation, however, is of little scientific value.

Psychologist Barry Beyerstein believes that "hope and uncertainty evoke powerful psychological processes that keep all occult and pseudoscientific character readers in business." We are constantly trying "to make sense out of the barrage of disconnected information we face daily" and "we become so good at filling in to make a reasonable scenario out of disjointed input that we sometimes make sense out of nonsense." We will often fill in the blanks and provide a coherent picture of what we hear and see, even though a careful examination of the evidence would reveal that the data is vague, confusing, obscure, inconsistent and even unintelligible.




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А на самом деле мы все ждем не дождемся конца света... :)

Мартышка и очки...Напрасный труд...Думаешь, кто-то это прочтет?

Если академик Гинзбурга для игроков - не авторитет,может почитают мнение Партизана,он как-то ближе)
http://www.kp.ru/daily/24428/597948

Мы верили и верим.
Всегда.
Неверие в Бога- это тоже вера /вроде как повторяюсь/.
Правильно подмечено: "Если что-то наука не может объяснить, то это совсем не значит, что этого не может существовать"
"А всё таки она вертится!"

Сдается мне, что тем "дедулей" был не кто иной как Сергей Алексеевич Вронский, автор 12-томника "Классическая астрология", личность незаурядная и легендарная. Кому интересно, может ознакомиться тут http://www.sovsekretno.ru/magazines/article/1224.

З.Ы. Freddi, согласитесь, как-то не поворачивается язык назвать его неучем или шарлатаном) /при всем уважении к академику Гинзбургу/.

Львица, у меня язык не поворачивается исключительно тогда, когда перепью.

Ну и, для полноты картины, было бы нечестно не поместить ссылку на альтернативное, так сказать, мнение.
Эффект Марса

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Этот же, но другой. (с)

Я давно считаю астрологию художественной литературой, не более того.
Есть интересные авторы, есть совсем бездарные.
"Над вымыслом слезами обольюсь..."
Но, само собой, каждый имеет право считать её чем-то иным. Кто-то верит, что астрология - наука. Имеет право защищать свою точку зрения.
Дорогая Несветская львица, я согласен, что г-н Вронский - не неуч. Но это не мешало ему быть шарлатаном. Согласитесь, что таких примеров можно привести множество.
Фундаментальные науки - точные науки. Физика и математика опровергают все до единого постулаты астрологии.
И еще немного о знании, простите за цитирование.
"О, сколько нам открытий чудных готовит просвещенья дух...".